Case Studies

A look at past investments, analyzing successes and failures with the hope of creating more of the former.

Winners

META
High-quality business trading at 12x TEV/EBIT with 80%+ gross margins and Reality Labs optionality
- Strong network effects
- Management execution on cost discipline
- VR/AR optionality
GOOG
Search dominance with AI integration, Isomorphic Labs drug discovery, and multiple trillion-dollar opportunities
- Search moat durability
- Cloud growth acceleration
- AI integration across products
URI
Equipment rental leader with scale advantages, technology differentiation, and infrastructure tailwinds
- Cyclical recovery play
- Market share gains
- Pricing power in supply constraints
NATL
ATM services spin-off with ATMaaS transformation, Allpoint network advantage, and 14% FCF yield
- Spin-off opportunities
- ATMaaS transformation
- Network effects
- Strategic assets
GRBK
Land-heavy homebuilder with 34% gross margins, 10-year lot supply, and Texas MUD/PID financing advantages
- Land-heavy strategy advantage
- Texas market concentration
- Vertical integration benefits
- MUD/PID financing advantages
BN
Post-spin-off value play with balance sheet assets trading at 3.6x discount and carry economics
- Spin-off arbitrage opportunities
- Asset management valuation
- Balance sheet value realization
- Carry economics

Losers