High-Quality Business at a Bargain Price
A durable network-effect business priced as if privacy changes, competition, and long-duration investment would permanently impair earnings power.
Research archive
Ideas, underwriting, and lessons.
Company and industry research presented as it was understood at the time—followed, where possible, by what happened and what changed my mind.
Selected
Representative investment work
Three examples that show how I approach platform businesses, asset-heavy structures, and cyclical industries.
A Post-Spin Relative Value Dislocation
A sum-of-the-parts analysis of the manager distribution, retained carry, and the value implied for Brookfield’s balance-sheet investments.
Land, Local Financing, and Structural Margins
How lot control, vertical integration, and Texas municipal financing can support returns that look structurally different from peers.
Archive
Company and industry research
Notes on business quality, capital allocation, valuation, and the expectations embedded in price.
- GOOGThesis at publication →
Search, AI, and Underwritten Optionality
A long-duration view of Search, Cloud, YouTube, Waymo, Isomorphic Labs, and the assets obscured by consolidated reporting.
- URICompleted investment →
Scale Advantages in Equipment Rental
A cyclical business with density, fleet, technology, and purchasing advantages that can translate into share gains and pricing power.
- NATLThesis at publication →
The Network Behind the ATM
A spin-off thesis centered on ATM-as-a-Service, the Allpoint network, recurring cash flow, and strategic infrastructure.
- U.S. HomebuildersIndustry research →
A Framework for Land Strategy and Returns
A cross-company study of land-light and land-heavy models, reinvestment, margins, and the conditions that determine durable ROE.
- Auto RetailersIndustry research →
The Economics of Auto Dealerships
An industry review of dealership economics, consolidation, fixed operations, capital allocation, and competitive structure.
- Investment NoteProcess note →
What I Learned from Charlie Munger
Notes on incentives, quality, patience, and building a decision process that compounds alongside capital.
Postmortems
Where the reasoning broke
These are not loss badges. They are attempts to isolate the assumptions, incentives, and timelines I underweighted.
Asset Value Without a Reliable Path
A postmortem on confusing theoretical asset value with realizable value when control, streaming losses, and timing work against minority owners.
- Control matters
- Time is a cost
- A catalyst must be underwritten
Mistaking Peak Economics for Normal
A postmortem on supply constraints, mean reversion, import competition, and the danger of capitalizing temporarily elevated margins.
- Normalize the cycle
- Map supply response
- Stress-test margins
A Brand Can Be Real and the Investment Still Fail
A postmortem on infrastructure spending, delayed operating leverage, working capital, and the gap between strategic potential and shareholder returns.
- Cash flow outranks narrative
- Execution has a clock
- Position size for uncertainty